Exclusive Interview with Quant Trader Painter: Surviving Long-Term, Waiting for Liquidity Dividends

1. Painter's Trading Strategy

1. Capital allocation:

• Position the cryptocurrency market as a super high-risk market, allocating no more than 30% of total assets.
• Mainly allocated to mid-low frequency quantitative ( trend strategies ), ensuring no missed opportunities in each bull market and not holding on stubbornly in a bear market.

2. Expected Returns and Risk Control:

• Ideally, the annualized return is around 50%, and it can be higher with leverage.
• Set stop-loss on every trade, with a maximum loss limit of 2%-5% per trade.
• Control single trade drawdown, maintain emotional stability, avoid overtrading

3. Trading Logic:

• Trends are the source of profits
• Use time as leverage, not capital as leverage
• Long-term survival, waiting for the Liquidity dividend cycle

2. The Trading Journey of Painter

1. Entered the market in 2018, with two years of subjective trading without returns.
2. Started quantitative trading after March 12, 2020, trading got on the right track.
3. The bull market in 2021 yielded substantial returns.
4. Currently focusing on medium to low frequency quantitative strategies, leaning towards trend types.

3. Views on the Current Market

1. Reason for the 805 crash:

   • Yen Carry Trade capital inflow
   • Liquidation after a long-term market fluctuation

2. Currently in the liquidity bull market's consolidation phase:

   • Similar to the small bull market in 2019, preparing for the big bull market in 2021
   • A major bull market is expected to occur around mid-2025 or in the third quarter.

3. Operation Suggestions:

   • Buy the dip with 10% of the position each time the price hits a new low.
   • You can pay attention to altcoins, which may perform better than Bitcoin when there is sufficient Liquidity.

4. Key Indicators:

   • When the interest rate level falls below 1%-1.5%, a bull market may begin(
   • Expansion and contraction of balance sheet amounts
   • Stablecoin Market Cap Growth

4. Trading Insights

1. Never make a big mistake, avoid large drawdowns.
2. Believe in your long-term profitability, and do not expect to break even in one go.
3. Use time as leverage, not funds as leverage.
4. Learning to stop loss is the primary condition for long-term survival.

5. Recommended Resources

1. YouTube blogger Luo Sheng
2. Books:
   • The Turtle Trading Rules
   • Wyckoff Method
   • Advanced Trend Technical Analysis
3. The trading mindset of a lazy trader