Bitcoin encounters resistance near $112,000, may remain sideways in the short term

The "Big and Beautiful" tax reduction bill in the United States has passed the House of Representatives and is expected to be signed by Trump in the early hours of July 5, Beijing time. Although this bill may lead to an increase in U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion, strong non-farm employment data in June has provided a buffer for the implementation of the policy. The employment report exceeding expectations has caused the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to drop from 98% to 80%.

However, Goldman Sachs analysts hold a different view. They have lowered their forecast for U.S. Treasury yields and expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates consecutively in September, October, and December. They believe that job growth mainly relies on local government hiring, and the labor participation rate is weak. The Trump administration also plans to send tariff notices to several countries starting from July 4, setting tariff rates ranging from 60%-70% or 10%-20%.

The compliance process in the cryptocurrency industry is also accelerating. A certain stablecoin issuer has applied for a National Trust Bank license in the United States, which is seen as a landmark event in the development of the industry. If successful, it will help promote standardization in the industry and enhance the competitiveness of stablecoins in the international market.

In this context, the Bitcoin market reacts sensitively. After the non-farm payroll data was released, Bitcoin briefly surged to $110,000 but failed to sustain. Nevertheless, several analysts hold an optimistic view on the medium to long-term prospects of Bitcoin. Some analysts expect Bitcoin to rise to $116,000 by the end of this month, while others predict it could reach $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025.

However, short-term risks remain. There are a large number of sell orders around $112,000, forming direct resistance. Technical analysis shows that if it cannot break through $110,500, the support range below is $106,000 to $107,500. A well-known industry figure warned that the Trump bill could lead to a short-term contraction in USD liquidity, and Bitcoin prices might drop to the range of $90,000 to $95,000. He expects that the market may trade sideways or experience a slight decline before the end of August, and could see an increase after liquidity recovers in early September.

The performance of the altcoin market has been varied, with some tokens showing significant increases. Notably, several tokens have recently appeared on a certain blockchain with astonishing gains, reaching a maximum increase of over 30000% in 24 hours.

In terms of key data, as of July 4th, 12:00 HKT, the price of Bitcoin is $109,188, with a daily trading volume of $28.786 billion; the price of Ethereum is $2,579.71, with a daily trading volume of $18.035 billion. The market fear and greed index is at 73, indicating a greedy state. The market shares of Bitcoin and Ethereum are 64.5% and 9.2%, respectively. In the past 24 hours, a total of 81,349 people have been liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $19.3 million.

As of July 3, the net inflow for Bitcoin ETF is $602 million, while the net inflow for Ethereum ETF is $149 million.

The top 500 tokens with the largest market cap today include Humanity Protocol (H) up by 28.99%, FUNToken (FUN) up by 23.71%, Paycoin (PCI) up by 12.48%, etc.

Other hot news includes: a certain trading platform has once again experienced a large withdrawal of Ethereum; DeFi Development increased its holdings in Solana by $2.72 million; Ondo and Pantera Capital launched a $250 million RWA investment plan; a certain early investor has sold a large amount of Celestia tokens, etc.