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The latest economic analysis report released by UBS reveals the subtle impact of the United States' tariff policy on prices. While tariffs have indeed pushed prices higher, the speed at which their effects have manifested has been slower than anticipated.
The price data for July presents an interesting picture. Excluding transportation items, core commodity prices only rose by 0.2%, a significant decline compared to the 0.55% increase in June (the highest since 2022). This change is reminiscent of the fluctuations on the water's surface: June was like throwing a large rock, creating high splashes; while July feels like tossing in small pebbles, with ripples still present but greatly diminished.
However, UBS experts warn that although the pace of price increases has slowed, the impact of tariffs on prices continues to accumulate. It's like continuously throwing stones into a pool; although each stone is small, over time, the water level will eventually rise.
Therefore, the future price trends in the United States need to be closely monitored. Just like a weather forecast, today's light rain does not necessarily mean tomorrow will be sunny and pleasant. The complexity of price fluctuations requires us to remain vigilant and continuously observe changes in economic indicators.
This report provides us with a new perspective on understanding the current economic situation. It reminds us that when interpreting economic data, we should not only pay attention to short-term fluctuations but also gain insight into long-term trends. As the global economic landscape continues to change, the chain reactions of policies among countries will continue to affect the market, testing the wisdom and flexibility of decision-makers.