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In the financial markets, the greatest cruelty is missing a good opportunity. Recently, the release of PPI data has triggered a strong reaction in the market. As an indicator of corporate production costs, PPI has risen 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which may lead the Fed to delay its interest rate cut plans.
The market originally widely expected a rate cut in September, but now this possibility has significantly decreased, leading to a general pullback in risk assets. However, this may be another opportunity that the market provides for investors.
Despite the concerning PPI data, the overall expectation for interest rate cuts has not completely vanished. Bessen has repeatedly called for a 50 basis points rate cut in September, and Trump has also hinted at the possibility of replacing the Fed chair earlier. CME even directly removed the option of "no rate cut in September," while Polymarket predicts that the probability of a 50 basis points cut has exceeded 8%.
These signs indicate that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September could be a key factor affecting market sentiment, with the trends in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets remaining optimistic.
It is worth noting that the current cryptocurrency market exhibits an unprecedented "structured" characteristic. Unlike the previous model where Bitcoin led the mainstream coins, which in turn drove the smaller coins, the current market is more inclined towards a "winner takes all" approach:
Bitcoin and Binance Coin have quietly reached new highs, while Ethereum, despite being in the spotlight, has yet to break its historical peak. The vast majority of mainstream and small coins are still stagnant. For example, Dogecoin has fallen from its historical high of $0.73 to around $0.20 now, Avalanche has dropped from $145 to $25, and Cardano has decreased from $3 to $1.
In this round of market trends, there are very few cryptocurrencies that can rise in sync with Bitcoin, with only a few such as Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Ripple. This new market pattern highlights the need for investors to adopt more cautious and precise selection strategies.