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A senior official of the U.S. Federal Reserve recently expressed views on the direction of monetary policy. The official emphasized that the overall interest rate path should be considered when formulating policy, rather than the decision of a single meeting. He pointed out that the current level of inflation is still above the target and there are persistent risks that need to be closely followed.
Regarding the future direction of policy, officials stated that the next employment report will be an important reference. Depending on the specifics of the report, it may support or oppose the decision to lower interest rates. Currently, the Federal Reserve's policy stance appears somewhat tight.
Officials emphasized that they need more economic data to assess the situation before the policy meeting in September, and they will continue to adjust their expectations for the Intrerest Rate path. Although risks in the labor market have increased, no significant issues have emerged so far.
Regarding the inflation outlook, officials expect that the inflation effects caused by tariffs will gradually weaken. He also mentioned that the future interest rate path may include a phase of pausing interest rate cuts. If the risks in the labor market further escalate, policy interest rates may need to be adjusted accordingly.
Overall, the statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious approach to policy making, emphasizing a data-driven decision-making process, and a continued focus on the labor market and inflation trends.