Analysis of the 2024 U.S. Election Situation: Multiple Factors Behind Trump's Rising Support Rate

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the latest data from market prediction platforms show that Trump's approval rating has risen to 53%, while his main competitor Harris has an approval rating of 46%. This change in data has attracted widespread attention, especially in the financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. This article will delve into the key factors driving the rise in Trump's approval rating, including controversies over economic policies, attitudes of centrist voters, the influence of key political figures, and support from the cryptocurrency industry.

1. Controversy over Economic Policy

The economic policy proposed by Harris is one of the core aspects of her campaign, but it has sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among moderate voters.

1. Price Control Policy

The price control measures proposed by Harris aim to limit the pricing power of companies on essential goods to prevent price gouging. However, economists and policy experts widely question their feasibility. Many experts believe that price controls may lead to market distortions, supply chain issues, and shortages of goods. This concern is not unfounded; historically, many price control measures have failed due to poor market responses.

2. Housing Policy

Harris proposed to address the housing shortage by building a large number of affordable housing units for the middle class. However, the implementation cost of this policy is extremely high, and its economic viability and practical effectiveness have been widely questioned. She promised to build 3 million affordable housing units during her first term, but the sources of funding and the details of policy implementation have not been clearly outlined. This uncertainty not only makes moderate voters uneasy but also raises doubts about Harris's credibility in policy execution.

3. Attraction and Limitations for the Middle Class

Harris's economic policy is centered on improving the quality of life for the middle class, with a particular emphasis on enhancing economic security for this group through increased child tax credits and controlling medical costs. However, the long-term sustainability of these policies and their funding sources remain unresolved. Additionally, Harris attempts to combine economic policy with social justice issues, but this approach has raised concerns among conservatives and some moderates while winning support from progressives.

4. Overall Impact on the Election Situation

Harris's economic policies, while demonstrating concern for the middle class and low-income groups, have failed to effectively increase her support among centrist and economically liberal voters due to the radical nature of the policy design and the lack of execution details. On the contrary, these voters may be more inclined to support Trump, who has clearer positions and more pragmatic policies.

2. Moderate Voter Attitudes Swing

Centrist voters often play a key role in American elections. They are more focused on the candidates' actual policies and their impact on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of controversy surrounding Harris's economic policies, support for her among centrist voters has begun to decline. In contrast, Trump's clear positions on tax cuts, economic stimulus, and other areas align more closely with centrist voters' expectations for economic development.

Trump's support for the free market and the economic measures he took during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, gained recognition from some moderate voters. In contrast, Harris's economic policies are considered too radical, making it difficult for her to increase support among moderates.

3. Influence of Key Political Figures

The absence of the Pennsylvania governor has negatively impacted Harris's campaign. As a key swing state, the attitudes of its voters are crucial to the outcome of the national election. The governor's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategies, and this discontent could further weaken Harris's support in the state.

In this case, voters may have doubts about Harris's campaign abilities and party cohesion, leading them to support the more certain Trump. This not only affects Harris's election prospects in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacts her performance in other swing states.

4. Trump and the Interaction with the Cryptocurrency Industry

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in his rising approval ratings. As the market has developed, he has gradually changed his stance and begun to actively support the crypto industry.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to publicly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that they would accept donations in various cryptocurrencies. This move not only demonstrates his open attitude towards cryptocurrencies but also establishes a closer connection with the crypto community.

In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has made a series of policy commitments that further solidify his position in the crypto community. He stated that if elected again, he would promote the inclusion of Bitcoin in the United States' strategic reserves and consider using Bitcoin to address some national debt issues.

This supportive attitude has gained wide recognition in the crypto community. Compared to Harris, Trump's position in the cryptocurrency field is clearer and more proactive, which has earned him a large number of supporters in this emerging market.

5. Election Spending by Cryptocurrency Companies

Nearly half of political donations from companies come from crypto firms. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates that align with their interests. The crypto industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in rhetoric but also significantly impacts the election through financial assistance.

This enterprise-level support further consolidates Trump's position in the crypto community and related industries. As more crypto companies and individual investors direct funds towards political action committees supporting Trump, his financial and promotional advantages in the election are strengthened, which also directly drives his rise in support in the prediction markets.

Conclusion

Trump's rising approval ratings are the result of multiple factors working together. Harris's economic policies have sparked controversy, particularly among moderate voters, making it difficult for her to gain support. The absence of key political figures has intensified concerns about division within the party. Meanwhile, Trump's supportive stance towards the cryptocurrency industry has earned him widespread recognition in this emerging market. At the same time, political donations from crypto companies have provided strong support for Trump's campaign.

In the coming months, both candidates will face significant challenges. They need to continuously adjust their strategies to gain more voter support, especially in key swing states. Regardless of the final outcome, this election will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market in the United States and globally. For investors and market participants, closely monitoring the policy directions of both candidates will be crucial for formulating future investment strategies.